September 11, 2021
Many Member States already have free trade agreements between them, but there are restrictions. President-elect Joe Biden said Monday that the United States must ally with other democracies to write the rules of global trade — not China. Curmudgeons laments that RCEP encourages regional supply and supply chains at the expense of non-members. Stricter rules on competition, state-owned enterprises or product standards could have allayed these fears. But it seems that it has been too difficult to agree on this, in part because RCEP members are at very different levels of economic development. The new free trade bloc will be more important than the agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada and the European Union. How the U.S. will respond to the new trade pact is unclear. While Mr. Biden takes office in January, trade and China have become sensitive topics. Now that Trump`s opponent, Joe Biden, has been proclaimed president-elect, the region is watching the evolution of U.S. trade policy and other issues.
For any of these forecasts to be true, the signatories must first ratify the agreement. Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre, a consulting firm, expects this to happen by January 2022. Some hope that India will join afterwards, but the chances seem slim. (He withdrew from the negotiations because he feared his industry would be overwhelmed by imports from China.) Others hope that RCEP will revive U.S. interest in the region. Domestic politics will make it difficult for a Biden administration to put in place bold business initiatives. But it`s going to look. ■ RCEP will connect about 30% of the world`s population and production and will achieve considerable gains in the appropriate policy context. According to the computer simulations we recently published, rcep could add $209 billion a year to global revenues by 2030 and $500 billion to global trade.
According to a blog analysis by the Brookings Institution, the Trans-Pacific Agreement and the new RCEP “will together offset global losses resulting from the U.S.-China trade war, but not for China and the U.S.” (1) For example, the CPTPP covers the liberalisation of 99% of trade with manufacturing industry, compared with around 90% of the RVEP. The CPTPP also includes disciplines relating to labour and environmental standards. Progress in trade with China would require an acceleration of negotiations on the investment agreement with China, which has been under negotiation since 2014 and has proven to be extremely problematic due to a combination of strict demands from the EU and China to yield on important market access issues. But if a way is found to break the deadlock, an investment deal could pave the way for a trade deal. Indeed, if Japan, South Korea and Switzerland – high-income industrialized countries – can conclude limited free trade agreements with China, it is not impossible to imagine one between China and the EU. .
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